Is China in debt at all?
In addition, household debt - mostly mortgages - is 61 per cent of GDP. Altogether, China's gross national debt is over 300 percent of GDP. A high debt burden constrains the government's fiscal firepower, preventing it from unleashing bolder stimulus and weakening its effectiveness when implementing support measures.
China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States. It remains lower than Japan, the world's most indebted leading economy, but some experts say the concern is that China's debt has surged at the sort of pace that usually leads to a financial bust and economic slump.
China's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record high in 2023 despite the slow pace of borrowing, reflecting the economy's weakening growth, a new report from a state-backed think tank shows.
China's economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation.
Japan consistently ranks among the countries with the highest national debt. In 2022, the nation's debt was estimated at almost 10 trillion U.S. dollars , while it's GDP is just 4.2 trillion . The Japanese government is currently spending around half of its total tax revenue on servicing its massive debt.
China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations. With China's trend growth rate notably lower now than it was, it leaves a burden over the long haul.
U.S. debt offers the safest haven for Chinese forex reserves, which effectively means that China offers loans to the U.S. so that the U.S. can keep buying the goods China produces.
What country has the best economy?
The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
China is now an upper-middle-income country. Although China has eradicated extreme poverty in 2020, an estimated 17.2 percent of the population lived on less than $6.85 a day (in 2017 PPP terms), the World Bank's Upper-Middle-Income Country (UMIC) poverty line, in 2023.
Tax hikes alone are rarely enough to stimulate the economy and pay down debt. Governments often issue debt in the form of bonds to raise money. Spending cuts and tax hikes combined have helped lower the deficit. Bailouts and debt defaults have disadvantages but can help a government solve a debt problem.
It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.
2019 due to Russia & China selling their Treasury bonds? According to the US Treasury, Russian ownership of US Treasuries was $2.1 Billion in Nov 2022. That's so small an amount it might as well be zero.
Nations like China typically hold US debt in the form of various US Treasury debt, including bonds and other notes. None of these instruments allow debt holders to simply demand repayment…you get the terms and conditions associated with the bond and there's little flexibility to “calling in all of their debts”.
Public debt in Russia averaged 15.4% of GDP in the decade to 2022, below the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe. Public debt in Russia was 18.9% of GDP in 2022.
China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.
By dumping US Treasuries, as the theory goes, China can induce waves of sell-offs of the bonds and tumble their value. The problem with this thinking is that it does not account for the size of US Treasuries held internationally, which is US$7.4 trillion. China holds merely 1.3 percent of them.
What is China's real debt?
In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.
As a result, totals from January 2023 are lower than reported. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).
The case of debts arising from World War II is somewhat less complicated. At this time only four countries, discussed below, owe the U.S. government debts of any size arising from World War II programs to aid our allies. Other countries have paid their debts in full.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
China's lending to developing countries is a small portion of its overall debt; the debt crisis in China arises from issues in the real estate sector and borrowing by local governments, leading to a lack of funds for public services.
